Rising grocery costs are now a daily concern for most Canadians. But data-driven research is available to help consumers make smarter budget decisions.
Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report (CFPR) is an annual collaboration between research partners 91探花平台, Saint Mary鈥檚 University, University of Prince Edward Island, Cape Breton University, University of Guelph, Universit茅 Laval, University of British Columbia, and University of Saskatchewan. The research team employs a suite of predictive analysis models to forecast Canadian food prices for the coming year.
Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report 2026 forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 4% to 6%. The average family of four is expected to spend $17,571.79 on food in 2026, an increase of up to $994.63 from last year. Food prices are 27% higher than they were five years ago. Residents in Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, and Quebec are expected to see food price increases above the national average next year.
Read the full report:听听(PDF)听l听听(PDF)
鈥淐anadian families are still feeling the squeeze at the grocery store,鈥� says Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Project Lead, 91探花平台. 鈥淥ur forecast for 2026 makes one thing clear: food affordability will remain a major pressure point in the year ahead.鈥�
Looking Back: What happened to food prices in 2025?
Annual food price increases are currently within the range forecasted in the 2025 CFPR (4%), however meat increased at a faster rate than predicted (5% to 7%). The price of beef soared, with a 19% increase in the first quarter alone. This later stabilized, but prices were still 23% above the five-year average. Chicken prices are set to rise substantially as more customers make the swap.
鈥淲hile all food prices will experience slight increases, meat and beef witnessed the largest increase,鈥� says Dr. Stuart Smyth, Campus Lead, University of Saskatchewan. 鈥淣early a decade of drought in the leading beef producing area of Canada has resulted in the smallest number of cattle since the late 1980s. Reduced supply and consistent demand creates upward pressure. Canadian beef is high quality and consumers intending to keep buying it will need to be increasingly conscious of optimum purchasing opportunities.鈥�
Food prices are influenced by a variety of global factors. 2025 was a tumultuous year politically and economically. Food prices in Canada this year were significantly impacted by the GST/HST holiday, the United States trade dispute and subsequent Buy Canadian movement, interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, caps on Canada鈥檚 Temporary Foreign Worker Program, and a decrease in food manufacturing growth.
Government measures, although helpful, generally provided only temporary relief for consumers at the grocery store. Canadian GDP growth has slowed (1.2-1.4%) and is behind the global average (2.9%). Ongoing concerns, such as increasingly severe and unpredictable weather events, retail shifts, and energy prices all have potential to impact Canadian food prices. This impact will continue to be felt in 2026.
Looking Forward: What will happen to food prices in 2026?
Even though overall food prices are not expected to come down in 2026, there is some good news for consumers.
Inflation has decreased (holding around 2%) and lower interest rates allow food businesses to access more affordable loans, making expansion and acquisition easier. In a promising pivot, the U.S. government recently rolled back tariffs on more than 200 agricultural and food products.
The One Canadian Economy Act was passed in July and should stimulate trade between provinces and strengthen domestic competition. The Grocery Code of Conduct becomes fully operational in January 2026, which will hopefully reign in corporate grocery greed (the top four chains in Canada control at least 72% of the market share). Nutrition legislation (including mandatory front-of-pack food labelling and fortifying of dairy milk with double the amount of Vitamin D) will help make healthier food options accessible to more Canadians.
The carefully collected and analyzed data presented in Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report can empower consumers by helping them understand the local and global food landscape, and trends within the food industry. This knowledge enables them to make better food purchase decisions, improving their financial stability and overall well-being.
鈥淧rices are only one piece of Canada鈥檚 complex food industry story. Prices increase year over year but reports like this one help us understand that our food sits in the middle of shifting disputes, behaviours, and policies,鈥� says Dr. Evan Fraser, Director of the Arrell Food Institute, University of Guelph. 鈥淚t remains critical that we continue to collaborate across Canada to track new trends, because affordable access to food is a matter of 蝉别肠耻谤颈迟测.鈥�
For more information, please read the听complete Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report 2026.
91探花平台 Authors and Advisors:
- Dr. Sylvain Charlebois (Lead Author), sylvain.charlebois@dal.ca
- Dr. Stefanie Colombo, scolombo@dal.ca
- Dr. Vlado Keselj, vlado@cs.dal.ca
- Dr. Paola Marignani, Paola.Marignani@Dal.ca
- Dr. Rick Nason, Richard.Nason@Dal.ca
- Dr. Arma臒an 脰zbilge, ozbilgea@dal.ca
- Janet Music (Production Team), janet.music@dal.ca